Examining the Severity of Natural Disasters: A Study of Lower Middle-Income Countries
Abina V P and Meenakshi Rajeev
Abstract
The foremost priority outlined in the Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction, 2015, underscores the need for a comprehensive understanding of multidimensional disaster risk. In the light of this, the present study tries to examine the disaster risk profiles of Lower Middle-income Countries (LMCs), which account for the largest share in terms of the human cost of natural disasters. By combining three immediate impact indicators, i.e., the percentage of people killed, percentage of people affected and damage cost as a percentage of GDP, an overall disaster severity index was constructed for LMCs for the period 2000-2023,with weights assigned to these indicators following the Multidimensional Poverty Index (MPI) framework developed by Alkire & Foster (2011). The study has found that over time, these countries have faced a wide range of natural disasters, with flooding and storms being the most common among them. Further, the convergence of economic and geographical vulnerabilities is found to have magnified the overall severity of natural disasters faced by LMCs. It has been found that 40% of the countries with a very high natural disaster severity accounted for a GDP per capita of less than $4,000. Furthermore, 66% of them have experienced medium density of natural disasters, with more than 20 events occurring in the past five years. Additionally, 40% of these nations exhibit poverty rates exceeding 30% with all of them sharing a coastal territory. Notably, 60% of them are island countries with high elevation and a significant coastal population. By adopting this comprehensive approach, our research seeks to provide a more accurate and holistic understanding of the severity of natural disasters, which enables a fairer comparison of countries facing different types of natural disasters. Moreover, an understanding of the various dimensions of risk can help policy makers to reduce the future natural disaster risk.