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SUB-NATIONAL ESTIMATION OF MDG INDICATORS
An Analysis of Two States with differential quality of data
(Supported by UNFPA)

Background

There is a felt need in many quarters of government administration to develop appropriate data bases, indicators for sub-national estimation procedures for effective monitoring and evaluation of various social development programs. The need for development of appropriate databases at the district levels or even below has become imminent particularly after the decentralization process began in India with the 73rd and 74th amendment. There is a gap in expertise in respect of estimation methodologies for sub-national areas.  Building capacity and expertise in sub-national estimation is a high priority task. 

Objectives

This study expected to address the limitations of sub-national estimation in India primarily through three objectives. Firstly, it will collect the available information of data on various MDG indicators at the district level in two settings, with good quality information and relatively poor quality information. Secondly, the study will address the method of deriving major MDG indicators from the available information, both survey and services statistics, through direct and indirect methods. Thirdly, the study also will bring out a manual for future use as well as for capacity building in sub-national estimation.

Sample District:The study will be carried out in the states of Karnataka and Rajasthan. Karnataka is selected as a district with relatively good quality of data and Rajasthan has relatively poor quality of information at the district level. Two districts each from each of these states will be selected for the study. The selection of the district will be based on preliminary data analysis on the quality of information available from various districts of these two states.

Methodology: The study expected to use the available direct and indirect demographic and statistical methods to derive various indicators. A list of illustrative indicators expected to be covered by this study is provided in the appendix for RCH and Health. It will also provide information on the available sources of data to derive these indicators. Similar exercise and scan of different data sets for other MDG areas will have to be undertaken.

Workshops

  • Methodologies for Small Area Estimation, April 24-25, 2009

The purpose of the Workshop is to discuss the available and appropriate methodologies for the estimation of different parameters at local level. In the decentralised form of governance and service delivery in India, there is a larger demand for estimates of different indicators at local level. This workshop will also be useful in developing a curriculum on small area estimation which can be taught in institutes and universities in India. 

  • Sub-National Estimation of MDG indicators, November 2, 2009


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